조성훈 교수
Sung-hoon Jo
연세대학교 경제학과 · 경제학
연구실 소개
조성훈 교수의 연구실은 신케인저시안 거시경제 모델과 수익률 곡선 모형을 융합하여 통화정책의 전파 메커니즘과 거시경제 충격에 대한 시장 반응을 정량적으로 분석합니다. 특히, 비관측 변수인 인플레이션 목표율과 자연실업률을 거시경제 데이터와 수익률 곡선 정보에서 추정함으로써 통화정책의 실질적 영향력을 규명합니다. 연구는 주로 연준과 한국은행의 통화정책이 인플레이션과 실업률 변동을 어떻게 조정하는지에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 특히 금리 반응 규칙과 정책의 안정성에 대한 분석을 강점으로 삼고 있습니다.
연구 현황
연구 성과 추이
표시된 성과는 수집된 데이터 기준으로 산출되며, 일부 차이가 있을 수 있습니다.
주요 논문
15This article complements the structural New Keynesian macro framework with a no‐arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro model with unobservable processes for the inflation target and the natural rate of output that are filtered from macro and term structure data. We find that term structure information helps generate large and significant parameters governing the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Our model also delivers stron
This paper presents a small-sample study of the threeequation-three variable New-Keynesian macro model. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed against inflation. We show that, if we add first order autocorrelation to the error terms of the New-Keynesian model, this is only marginally rejected.
This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data. We obtain large and significant estimates of the Phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the
In this paper, motivated and inspired by Samet et al., we introduce the notion of generalized weakly contractive mappings in metric spaces and prove the existence and uniqueness of fixed point for such mappings, and we obtain a coupled fixed point theorem in metric spaces. These theorems generalize many previously obtained fixed point results. An example is given to illustrate the main result. Finally, we give applications of our results to fixed point results in partial metric spaces.
We formulate and solve a Rational Expectations New Keynesian macro model that implies non-linear cross-equation restrictions on the dynamics of inflation, the output gap and the Federal funds rate. Our maximum likelihood estimation procedure fully imposes these restrictions and yields asymptotic and small sample distributions of the structural parameters. We show how the structural parameters shape the responses of the macro variables to the structural shocks. While the point estimates imply tha
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy on stabilizing inflation and output for the post-crisis era. The paper examines whether a sizable moderation in inflation, observed in this period, is consistent with the monetary policy of the Bank of Korea through its interest rate channel. Although the inflation rates have been within the inflation target range of the central bank for the post-crisis era, we find that such an empirical fact is not supported by the interest rate feedbac
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