[논문 리뷰] A Comparative Study of Online Disinformation and Offline Protests

Jukka Ruohonen|arXiv (Cornell University)|2021. 06. 21.

Misinformation and Its Impacts인용 수 5

한 줄 요약

이 연구는 2000~2019년 기간 동안 125개국의 시계열 횡단자료를 바탕으로 베이지안 다중수준 회귀를 사용하여 온라인 허위정보가 오프라인 정치적 시위에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 분석한다. 연구 결과, 국내 및 외국 정부에서 비롯된 허위정보는 정치적 극화를 통해 시위 빈도를 증가시키며, 특히 유럽경제지역(European Economic Area) 국가에서 두드러진다. 반면 인터넷 차단과 정부의 모니터링 부재는 오히려 시위 빈도를 감소시키는 역설적인 결과를 보인다.

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the effect of online disinformation upon offline political protests with a time series cross-sectional sample of 125 countries in a period between 2000 and 2019. The results are mixed. Based on Bayesian multi-level regression modeling, (i) there indeed is an effect between online disinformation and offline protests, but the effect is partially meditated by political polarization. The results are clearer in a sample of countries belonging to the European Economic Area. With this sample, (ii) offline protest counts increase from online disinformation disseminated by domestic governments, political parties, and politicians as well as by foreign governments. Furthermore, (iii) Internet shutdowns tend to decrease the counts, although, paradoxically, the absence of governmental online monitoring of social media tends to also decrease these. With these results, the paper contributes to the blossoming disinformation research by modeling the impact of disinformation upon offline phenomenon. The contribution is important due to the various policy measures planned or already enacted.

연구 동기 및 목표

• growing evidence on disinformation’s role in violence.
• To assess whether political polarization mediates the relationship between online disinformation and protest activity.
• To examine the effects of internet shutdowns and government social media monitoring on protest frequency.
• To test whether the relationship differs across geopolitical regions, particularly in high-polarization settings like the European Economic Area.
• To contribute empirical and policy-relevant insights to the growing field of disinformation research, especially given increasing legislative responses in Europe and beyond.

제안 방법

• Employs Bayesian multi-level regression modeling to analyze time-series cross-sectional data across 125 countries from 2000 to 2019.
• Uses the V-Dem dataset for measures of online disinformation, distinguishing between domestic and foreign-sourced disinformation.
• Incorporates political polarization as a mediating variable in structural models to test indirect effects.
• Analyzes protest counts derived from media-based coding, using datasets from Coppedge et al. (2021b) and Coppedge et al. (2021a).
• Tests the impact of internet shutdowns and absence of government monitoring of social media on protest frequency.
• Conducts separate analyses on the full sample and a subset of European Economic Area (EEA) countries to assess regional variation.

실험 결과

연구 질문

• RQ1 Does online disinformation disseminated by governments, political parties, and politicians correlate with increased offline political protests?
• RQ2 To what extent is the relationship between online disinformation and offline protests mediated by political polarization?
• RQ3 How do internet shutdowns and the absence of government monitoring of social media affect protest frequency?
• RQ4 Are the effects of disinformation on protests stronger or different in high-polarization contexts such as the European Economic Area?
• RQ5 What role do foreign-sourced disinformation and domestic disinformation play in mobilizing offline political action?

주요 결과

• Online disinformation from domestic and foreign governments is significantly associated with increased offline political protests, particularly in countries with high levels of political polarization.
• The effect of disinformation on protests is partially mediated by political polarization, indicating that disinformation amplifies existing societal divisions to fuel mobilization.
• In the European Economic Area sample, disinformation from domestic governments, political parties, and foreign actors all show a strong positive association with protest counts.
• Internet shutdowns have a notable negative effect on protest frequency, consistent with the idea that online coordination is essential for protest organization.
• Paradoxically, the absence of governmental monitoring of social media is also associated with decreased protest counts, suggesting that surveillance may sometimes deter or disrupt mobilization.
• The results are mixed in the full sample, indicating potential regional or structural differences—possibly due to digital divides or data quality biases in protest and disinformation coding.