[Paper Review] A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping

Sibel Eker, Charlie Wilson+5 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Sep 26, 2023

Climate Change Communication and PerceptionSocial Sciences3 citations

TL;DR

This paper proposes a dynamic systems approach to model and harness social tipping points for rapid decarbonization, integrating interconnected feedback mechanisms across socioeconomic and environmental systems. It advances climate policy relevance by combining empirical data collection, cross-scale modeling, and a justice-informed framework to project and monitor transformative societal shifts toward net-zero emissions.

ABSTRACT

Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analysing the potential of social tipping for rapid decarbonization requires considering the inherent complexity of social systems. Here, we identify that existing scientific literature is inclined to a narrative-based account of social tipping, lacks a broad empirical framework and a multi-systems view. We subsequently outline a dynamic systems approach that entails (i) a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms alongside cross-system and cross-scale interactions, and including a socioeconomic and environmental injustice perspective (ii) directed data collection efforts to provide empirical evidence for and monitor social tipping dynamics, (iii) global, integrated, descriptive modelling to project future dynamics and provide ex-ante evidence for interventions. Research on social tipping must be accordingly solidified for climate policy relevance.

Motivation & Objective

• Address the lack of empirical and systemic frameworks in existing social tipping literature.
• Overcome the narrative-driven, non-quantitative nature of current research on social tipping points.
• Integrate socioeconomic and environmental justice perspectives into the analysis of transformative system shifts.
• Develop a multi-scale, multi-system modeling framework to project and evaluate interventions.
• Provide ex-ante evidence for policy-relevant tipping interventions through integrated descriptive modeling.

Proposed method

• Adopt a systems outlook emphasizing interconnected feedback loops across social, economic, political, and technological domains.
• Incorporate cross-system and cross-scale interactions to model cascading changes in complex systems.
• Implement directed data collection to empirically ground tipping dynamics and monitor real-time shifts.
• Use global, integrated, descriptive modeling to simulate future trajectories of social tipping processes.
• Embed a socioeconomic and environmental injustice lens into model design and interpretation.
• Combine narrative insights with empirical validation and systems modeling to strengthen policy relevance.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How can social tipping points be systematically modeled across interconnected socioeconomic and environmental systems?
• RQ2 What empirical data collection strategies are needed to monitor and validate social tipping dynamics?
• RQ3 How can justice considerations be embedded in the design and application of social tipping models?
• RQ4 What role do cross-scale and cross-system feedbacks play in accelerating or hindering decarbonization tipping points?
• RQ5 How can integrated descriptive modeling provide ex-ante evidence for effective climate policy interventions?

Key findings

• Existing literature on social tipping is predominantly narrative-based and lacks a robust empirical and systemic foundation.
• A dynamic systems approach enables the integration of feedback mechanisms across scales and systems, enhancing predictive and policy-relevant insights.
• Directed data collection is essential to empirically validate and monitor social tipping dynamics in real-world contexts.
• Global, integrated descriptive modeling offers a pathway to project future tipping dynamics and evaluate policy levers in advance.
• Incorporating environmental and socioeconomic justice perspectives is critical for equitable and effective tipping interventions.
• The proposed framework strengthens the scientific rigor of social tipping research, increasing its relevance for climate policy.