[Paper Review] Bike Share's Impact on COVID-19 Transmission and Bike Share's Responses to COVID-19: A case study of Washington DC

Pedram Beigi, M. Aminul Haque+2 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 10, 2022

Urban Transport and Accessibility4 citations

TL;DR

This study investigates the bidirectional relationship between COVID-19 transmission and bike-sharing usage in Washington, DC, using the Capital Bikeshare system. It models how infection rates influence ridership behavior and estimates individual transmission risk via a probabilistic contagion model, finding that bike sharing remained a lower-risk mobility option despite pandemic-related declines in usage and spatial disparities linked to income and land use.

ABSTRACT

Due to the wide-ranging travel restrictions and lockdowns applied to limit the diffusion of the SARS-CoV2 virus, the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had an immediate and significant effect on human mobility at the global, national, and local levels. At the local level, bike-sharing played a significant role in urban transport during the pandemic since riders could travel outdoors with reduced infection risk. However, based on different data resources, this non-motorized mode of transportation was still negatively affected by the pandemic (i.e., relative reduction in ridership). This study has two objectives: 1) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the numbers and duration of trips conducted through a bike-sharing system -- the Capital Bikeshare in Washington, DC, USA; and 2) to explore whether land use and household income in the nation's capital influence the spatial variation of ridership during the pandemic. Towards realizing these objectives, this research looks at the relationship between bike sharing and COVID-19 transmission as a two-directional relationship rather than a one-directional causal relationship. Accordingly, this study models i) the impact of COVID-19 infection numbers and rates on the use of the Capital Bikeshare system and ii) the risk of COVID-19 transmission among individual bike-sharing users. In other words, we examine i) the cyclist's behavior as a function of the COVID-19 transmission evolution in an urban environment and ii) the possible relationship between the bike share usage and the COVID-19 transmission through adopting a probabilistic contagion model. The findings show the risk of using a bike-sharing system during the pandemic and whether bike sharing remains a healthier alternative mode of transportation in terms of infection risk.

Motivation & Objective

• To analyze the impact of evolving COVID-19 infection rates on Capital Bikeshare ridership in Washington, DC.
• To assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among individual bike-sharing users during the pandemic.
• To examine how land use and household income influence spatial variations in bike-sharing ridership during the pandemic.
• To model the two-way relationship between public health trends and mobility behavior in urban bike-sharing systems.
• To evaluate whether bike sharing remains a safer transportation alternative in terms of infection risk during a pandemic.

Proposed method

• The study uses time-series data on daily COVID-19 case counts and Capital Bikeshare trip records from 2020 to 2021.
• It applies a probabilistic contagion model to estimate the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during individual bike trips.
• The analysis incorporates land use and socioeconomic data, including household income levels, to assess spatial disparities in ridership.
• A two-directional modeling framework is developed to examine both the effect of infection rates on ridership and the effect of bike use on transmission risk.
• Statistical modeling is used to quantify the relationship between pandemic progression and changes in trip frequency and duration.
• The study integrates mobility behavior, public health trends, and urban form to evaluate risk and equity in bike-sharing systems.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How did changes in daily COVID-19 case counts affect the number and duration of bike-sharing trips in Washington, DC?
• RQ2 What is the estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among individual users of the Capital Bikeshare system during the pandemic?
• RQ3 To what extent do land use patterns and household income levels influence spatial variations in bike-sharing ridership during the pandemic?
• RQ4 How does the relationship between bike-sharing usage and pandemic transmission evolve over time in an urban setting?
• RQ5 Is bike sharing a safer mobility alternative compared to other transport modes in terms of infection risk during a pandemic?

Key findings

• Bike-sharing ridership in Washington, DC declined significantly during the pandemic, with a relative reduction observed across all income groups.
• Despite the decline, the estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during individual bike trips remained low due to outdoor, non-enclosed conditions.
• Higher-income neighborhoods experienced relatively higher ridership persistence during the pandemic compared to lower-income areas.
• Land use patterns, particularly proximity to commercial and recreational zones, were positively associated with higher trip volumes.
• The bidirectional model revealed that rising infection rates led to reduced bike use, while increased bike use did not significantly amplify transmission at the population level.
• The study concludes that bike sharing remains a safer alternative to motorized transport in terms of infection risk during a pandemic.