[Paper Review] The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter IV: Energy from Breeder Reactors and from Fusion?

Michael Dittmar|ArXiv.org|Nov 13, 2009

Global Energy and Sustainability Research1 references3 citations

TL;DR

This paper critically evaluates the feasibility of breeder reactors and nuclear fusion as future energy sources, concluding that both face insurmountable technological and economic barriers. Based on analysis of historical breeder reactor data and current fusion research, the author argues that commercial breeder reactors are unlikely within decades and fusion power will never become a reality, challenging widespread technological optimism in nuclear energy.

ABSTRACT

The accumulated knowledge and the prospects for commercial energy production from fission breeder and fusion reactors are analyzed in this report. The publicly available data from past experimental breeder reactors indicate that a large number of unsolved technological problems exist and that the amount of "created" fissile material, either from the U238 --> Pu239 or from the Th232 --> U233 cycle, is still far below the breeder requirements and optimistic theoretical expectations. Thus huge efforts, including many basic research questions with an uncertain outcome, are needed before a large commercial breeder prototype can be designed. Even if such efforts are undertaken by the technologically most advanced countries, it will take several decades before such a prototype can be constructed. We conclude therefore, that ideas about near-future commercial fission breeder reactors are nothing but wishful thinking. We further conclude that, no matter how far into the future we may look, nuclear fusion as an energy source is even less probable than large-scale breeder reactors, for the accumulated knowledge on this subject is already sufficient to say that commercial fusion power will never become a reality.

Motivation & Objective

• To assess the real-world viability of breeder reactors and fusion energy as future energy sources.
• To challenge the widespread belief in near-term commercial deployment of breeder reactors and fusion power.
• To analyze publicly available data from past breeder reactors and current fusion programs to evaluate technological progress.
• To argue that the accumulated knowledge on fusion is sufficient to conclude it will never become a commercial energy source.

Proposed method

• Analysis of historical data from experimental breeder reactors, including performance and fissile material breeding ratios.
• Review of the Generation IV breeder reactor program and its projected timeline and technical challenges.
• Examination of the thorium fuel cycle (Th232 → U233) and its potential for brevity and sustainability.
• Evaluation of fusion energy research, particularly the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and its long-term timeline.
• Comparison of theoretical expectations with actual experimental results in breeder and fusion programs.
• Use of critical analysis and skepticism toward optimistic claims from the nuclear energy community, based on lack of responses to inquiries from experts.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 To what extent do past breeder reactor experiments meet the theoretical breeding ratio requirements for commercial viability?
• RQ2 Why have breeder reactors failed to achieve their promised breeding ratios despite decades of research and development?
• RQ3 What are the fundamental technological and economic barriers preventing the commercial deployment of breeder reactors?
• RQ4 Is there sufficient scientific and technical progress in fusion energy to justify continued investment and long-term expectations?
• RQ5 Why do fusion energy projects remain perpetually '50 years away' despite massive funding and global effort?

Key findings

• Past breeder reactors have failed to achieve the required breeding ratios, with actual fissile material production far below theoretical expectations.
• The U238 → Pu239 and Th232 → U233 breeding cycles have not demonstrated sufficient efficiency to support commercial breeder reactors.
• Even with advanced efforts, large-scale breeder reactor prototypes are unlikely to be constructed for several decades, if at all.
• The author concludes that commercial fusion power will never become a reality, based on the accumulated knowledge and persistent unresolved challenges.
• The nuclear energy community has not provided credible responses to critical questions about resource sustainability, breeding efficiency, and fusion feasibility.
• The report concludes that both breeder reactors and fusion energy are not viable solutions for near-term or long-term energy needs, calling into question widespread technological optimism.