[Paper Review] Conservation priority mapping to prevent zoonotic spillovers

Leonardo Viotti, Luis Ernesto Ortegón Herrera+3 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jan 19, 2026

Zoonotic diseases and public health0 citations

TL;DR

The paper presents high-resolution (1 km) global maps of tropical-priority areas for two ecological countermeasures—restoration and deforestation prevention—to reduce wildlife-to-human spillover, across 50 countries, with open-source tools and a no-code platform.

ABSTRACT

Diseases originating from wildlife pose a significant threat to global health, causing human and economic losses each year. The transmission of disease from animals to humans occurs at the interface between humans, livestock, and wildlife reservoirs, influenced by abiotic factors and ecological mechanisms. Although evidence suggests that intact ecosystems can reduce transmission, disease prevention has largely been neglected in conservation efforts and remains underfunded compared to mitigation. A major constraint is the lack of reliable, spatially explicit information to guide efforts effectively. Given the increasing rate of new disease emergence, accelerated by climate change and biodiversity loss, identifying priority areas for mitigating the risk of disease transmission is more crucial than ever. We present new high-resolution (1 km) maps of priority areas for targeted ecological countermeasures aimed at reducing the likelihood of zoonotic spillover, along with a methodology adaptable to local contexts. Our study compiles data on well-documented risk factors, protection status, forest restoration potential, and opportunity cost of the land to map areas with high potential for cost-effective interventions. We identify low-cost priority areas across 50 countries, including 277,000 km2 where environmental restoration could mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover and 198,000 km2 where preventing deforestation could do the same, 95% of which are not currently under protection. The resulting layers, covering tropical regions globally, are freely available alongside an interactive no-code platform that allows users to adjust parameters and identify priority areas at multiple scales. Ecological countermeasures can be a cost-effective strategy for reducing the emergence of new pathogens; however, our study highlights the extent to which current conservation efforts fall short of this goal.

Motivation & Objective

• Identify low-cost conservation priority areas to prevent zoonotic spillovers in tropical regions.
• Map two intervention pathways (restoration via natural regeneration and deforestation prevention) where risk factors overlap.
• Quantify area and cost-feasibility and identify gaps in protected-area coverage.
• Provide open-access data layers and a no-code tool to support local-scale decision-making.

Proposed method

• Compile risk-factor layers for wildlife-to-human and livestock-mediated spillovers at 1 km resolution.
• Use Google Earth Engine to harmonize data, reproject to 1 km, and apply 7% perpetuity opportunity-cost filter.
• Define high biodiversity areas as the 85th percentile or higher for birds, bats, rodents, and primates.
• Identify high livestock density (pigs/chickens) and high human population density (≥100 people/km2) overlap zones.
• Classify priority areas into restoration and deforestation-prevention categories based on overlap with deforestation risk (to 2050) and restoration potential.
• Provide a no-code interactive platform and make data publicly available.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Where do risk factors for wildlife-to-human spillover and livestock-mediated spillover overlap in tropical regions?
• RQ2 Which areas are suitable for restoration through natural regeneration or deforestation prevention and have low opportunity costs?
• RQ3 How much area across countries represents priority regions for each intervention, and how much lies outside protected areas?
• RQ4 How can open data and a no-code tool support local decision-making for spillover prevention?
• RQ5 What is the potential cost-effectiveness of ecological countermeasures compared to mitigation efforts?

Key findings

• 277,000 km² of restoration-priority areas across 50 countries could mitigate spillovers at low cost.
• 198,000 km² of deforestation-prevention priority areas across 44 countries could mitigate spillovers, with 95% outside protected areas.
• Most identified priority areas (about 95%) are not currently within formal protected areas.
• Priority areas are characterized by overlaps of high biodiversity with deforestation risk or restoration potential and high livestock/human density.
• The study provides high-resolution (1 km) risk layers and an interactive no-code platform for scenario exploration.