[Paper Review] Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future

Hiteshi Tandon, Prabhat Ranjan+2 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 16, 2020

COVID-19 epidemiological studies5 references76 citations

TL;DR

The paper develops an ARIMA-based time-series model to forecast near-future COVID-19 cases in India, indicating an ascending and exponential growth trend to aid planning.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation. Following that notion, we have developed a model and then employed it for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The study indicates an ascending trend for the cases in the coming days. A time series analysis also presents an exponential increase in the number of cases. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.

Motivation & Objective

• Motivate the need to predict near-future COVID-19 infections to support prevention and healthcare planning.
• Develop an ARIMA-based forecasting model for COVID-19 cases in India.
• Forecast forthcoming case counts to aid government and medical readiness.

Proposed method

• Construct and apply an ARIMA-based time-series model to COVID-19 case data.
• Forecast near-future infection counts for India using the developed model.
• Assess and interpret the forecast to understand growth trajectories (ascending/exponential).
• Suggest potential implications for health system preparedness.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 What is the near-future trajectory of COVID-19 cases in India as captured by an ARIMA model?
• RQ2 Can ARIMA-based forecasts reveal an ascending and potentially exponential growth pattern in India’s COVID-19 cases?
• RQ3 How can the forecasts inform government and healthcare preparedness for upcoming conditions?

Key findings

• Forecasts indicate an ascending trend in COVID-19 cases in the near future.
• Time-series analysis suggests an exponential increase in the number of cases.
• The model is intended to aid policymakers and medical personnel in preparedness and resource planning.