[Paper Review] Evolution of National Nobel Prize Shares in the 20th Century

Juergen Schmidhuber|arXiv (Cornell University)|Sep 14, 2010

scientometrics and bibliometrics research3 citations

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the evolution of national Nobel Prize shares from 1901 to 2009, distinguishing between laureates by citizenship at award time and by country of birth, revealing major shifts in scientific leadership due to brain drain and migration. It shows the U.S. overtook Germany in science Nobel shares by citizenship in 1984 and by birth in 1993, reflecting a century-long shift from German to American dominance in science and innovation.

ABSTRACT

We analyze the evolution of cumulative national shares of Nobel Prizes since 1901, properly taking into account that most prizes were divided among several laureates. We rank by citizenship at the moment of the award, and by country of birth. Surprisingly, graphs of this type have not been published before, even though they powerfully illustrate the century's migration patterns (brain drains and gains) in the sciences and other fields.

Motivation & Objective

• To map the temporal evolution of national Nobel Prize shares from 1901 to 2009, distinguishing between citizenship at time of award and country of birth.
• To quantify and visualize the impact of international migration on scientific leadership, particularly brain drain from Germany to the U.S.
• To correct for unequal prize fractions (1/2, 1/3, 1/4) awarded to multiple laureates, ensuring accurate national attribution.
• To compare trends in total Nobel Prizes, science prizes, and literature/peace prizes, highlighting divergences between citizenship- and birthplace-based rankings.
• To examine the accelerating trend of prize fragmentation (e.g., shared awards) and its implications for per-capita and per-laureate comparisons.

Proposed method

• For each Nobel laureate with n nationalities, the award fraction (1, 1/2, 1/3, or 1/4) is added to the national counts of all n countries, without dividing by n.
• Data were collected from the Nobel Foundation’s website (nobelprize.org) in March 2010, including all individual and organizational prizes.
• Prizes were aggregated by country of birth and citizenship at time of award, with Russia and the USSR treated as a single entity.
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences (introduced in 1969) was excluded to avoid distortion, as it is not an official Nobel Prize.
• Graphs display cumulative national shares as vertical bands, with color-coded countries ordered by first prize year, showing percentage share up to each year.
• Figures compare citizenship-based and birthplace-based rankings to highlight migration effects, especially the U.S. rise and Germany’s decline post-WWII.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How did national shares of Nobel Prizes evolve from 1901 to 2009 when measured by citizenship at time of award versus country of birth?
• RQ2 What evidence exists for brain drain from Germany and other European nations to the U.S. and UK in the 20th century, particularly in the sciences?
• RQ3 When did the U.S. overtake Germany in Nobel Prize leadership, and how did this timing differ between citizenship-based and birthplace-based rankings?
• RQ4 How did the trend of shared prizes (fractions of 1/2, 1/3, 1/4) affect national prize counts and per-laureate award sizes over time?
• RQ5 To what extent did the dominance of English over German as the language of science correlate with shifts in national Nobel Prize shares?

Key findings

• The U.S. overtook Germany in science Nobel Prizes by citizenship in 1984 and by birth in 1993, marking a definitive shift in scientific leadership.
• By 2009, U.S.-born laureates led in science with 74.08 cumulative shares, compared to 51.08 for German-born and 34.33 for UK-born.
• Germany led in science Nobel Prizes by citizenship until 1964 and by birth until 1975, reflecting strong pre-WWII scientific output.
• The U.S. led in total Nobel Prizes by citizenship from 1956 onward, and by birth from 1965, indicating a decade-long lag in brain gain compared to brain drain.
• The average prize fraction per laureate declined to 0.55 for U.S. laureates, 0.69 for German laureates, and 0.49 in science, indicating increasing prize fragmentation.
• The shift from German to English as the dominant language of science mirrored the rise of U.S. Nobel shares, with English-speaking nations overtaking German-speaking ones in science by 1960 (birth-based) and 1954 (citizenship-based).