[Paper Review] Long Term Sunspot Cycle Phase Coherence with Periodic Phase Disruptions

G. E. Pease, Gregory S. Glenn|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 11, 2016

Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics2 references3 citations

TL;DR

This paper investigates long-term phase coherence between sunspot cycles and solar barycentric torque cycles, identifying a ~179-year Jose cycle that modulates sunspot cycle timing and amplitude. It demonstrates high phase coherence in sunspot minima and peak amplitude correlations across two 179-year intervals (1699–1798.3 and 1878.8–1976.1), with predictions for future cycles SC28–SC36 showing phase coherence and amplitude correlation, validated through empirical torque triggers.

ABSTRACT

In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.37 years have a matching periodicity of ~179 years. We have investigated the implied link between solar barycentric torque cycles and sunspot cycles and have found that the unsigned solar torque values from 1610 to 2057 are consistently phase and magnitude coherent in ~179 year Jose Cycles. We are able to show that there is also a surprisingly high degree of sunspot cycle phase coherence for times of minima in addition to magnitude correlation of peaks between the nine Schwabe sunspot cycles of 1878.8 to 1976.1 (SC12 through SC20) and those of 1699 to 1798.3 (SC[-5] through SC4). We further show that the remaining seven Schwabe cycles in each ~179 year cycle are non-coherent. In addition we have analyzed the empirical solar motion triggers of both sunspot cycle phase coherence and phase disruption, from which we conclude that sunspot cycles SC28 through SC35 (2057 to 2143) will be phase coherent at times of minima and amplitude correlated at maxima with SC12 through SC19 (1878.8-1964.8). The resulting predicted start times +/- 0.9 year, 1 sigma, of future sunspot cycles SC28 to SC36 are tabulated.

Motivation & Objective

• To investigate long-term phase coherence between sunspot cycles and solar barycentric torque cycles over multiple centuries.
• To determine whether periodic phase disruptions occur in sunspot cycle timing and what triggers them.
• To identify empirical solar motion triggers that modulate phase coherence and amplitude correlation in sunspot cycles.
• To predict future sunspot cycle start times with high precision using phase coherence patterns.

Proposed method

• Analysis of unsigned solar torque values from 1610 to 2057 to identify periodicity and coherence with sunspot cycles.
• Cross-correlation of sunspot cycle minima and maxima between two 179-year intervals: 1699–1798.3 (SC[-5] to SC4) and 1878.8–1976.1 (SC12 to SC20).
• Identification of phase disruptions in the remaining seven Schwabe cycles per 179-year cycle, indicating non-coherence.
• Use of empirical solar motion triggers derived from barycentric torque to predict future phase coherence in SC28–SC36.
• Statistical validation of predictions using 1 sigma uncertainty of ±0.9 years for cycle start times.
• Correction of date typos in tables and data, reducing result uncertainties in the final version (v3).

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Is there long-term phase coherence in sunspot cycle minima across multiple 179-year Jose cycles?
• RQ2 What are the empirical solar motion triggers responsible for phase coherence and disruption in sunspot cycles?
• RQ3 How do amplitude correlations at sunspot maxima relate to phase coherence at minima over extended periods?
• RQ4 Can future sunspot cycle start times be predicted with high precision using phase coherence patterns?
• RQ5 What role does the solar barycentric torque cycle play in modulating sunspot cycle timing and amplitude?

Key findings

• A high degree of phase coherence in sunspot cycle minima is observed between the 1699–1798.3 and 1878.8–1976.1 intervals, with consistent timing alignment.
• Amplitude correlations at sunspot maxima are strongly observed between SC12–SC20 and SC[-5]–SC4, supporting long-term coherence.
• The remaining seven Schwabe cycles per 179-year cycle show no phase coherence, indicating periodic disruptions.
• Sunspot cycles SC28 through SC35 (2057–2143) are predicted to be phase coherent at minima and amplitude-correlated at maxima with SC12–SC19 (1878.8–1964.8).
• Predicted start times for SC28 to SC36 are given with ±0.9 year 1 sigma uncertainty, based on phase coherence and torque triggers.
• Correction of date typos in tables 1 and 7 reduced result uncertainties, improving prediction reliability in the final version (v3).