[Paper Review] An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index

Kenneth L. Pryor|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 2, 2007

Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena20 references3 citations

TL;DR

This paper introduces the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI), a new diagnostic tool derived from GOES satellite sounder data to quantify the atmospheric potential for microburst formation. By integrating existing microburst index algorithms, the MWPI improves operational nowcasting of hazardous wind shear by identifying thermodynamically favorable conditions, with validation during the 2007 convective season showing strong correlation with observed microburst events.

ABSTRACT

A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective downbursts to aircraft in flight derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The existing suite of GOES microburst products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. Large output values of the microburst index algorithms indicate that the ambient thermodynamic structure of the troposphere fits the prototypical environment for each respective microburst type. Accordingly, a new diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index, is derived from merging existing algorithms and designed to quantify the most relevant factors in convective downburst generation in intermediate thermodynamic environments. This paper provides an initial assessment of the MWPI algorithm, presents case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the MWPI product, and presents validation results for the 2007 convective season.

Motivation & Objective

• To develop a new diagnostic product that improves the operational detection of microburst hazards to aviation.
• To quantify the atmospheric potential for microburst formation in intermediate thermodynamic environments where traditional indices may be less reliable.
• To integrate existing microburst index algorithms into a unified, more comprehensive metric for operational use.

Proposed method

• The MWPI is derived by merging multiple existing microburst index algorithms based on thermodynamic profiles from the GOES sounder.
• The algorithm evaluates key atmospheric parameters such as CAPE, wind shear, and moisture profiles to assess microburst potential.
• The index is designed to produce higher values in environments conducive to microburst development, particularly in non-ideal or intermediate conditions.
• Case studies are used to demonstrate operational utility, with results compared against observed convective events.
• Validation is performed using data from the 2007 convective season, assessing temporal and spatial correlation with actual microburst occurrences.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How well does the MWPI detect microburst potential in intermediate thermodynamic environments not fully captured by existing indices?
• RQ2 Can the MWPI improve operational nowcasting of microburst events compared to standalone microburst index products?
• RQ3 What is the spatial and temporal correlation between MWPI output and observed microburst events during the 2007 convective season?

Key findings

• The MWPI demonstrated strong operational utility in case studies, effectively identifying regions with high microburst potential prior to convective development.
• Validation results from the 2007 convective season showed a significant correlation between high MWPI values and observed microburst events.
• The index successfully captured microburst potential in environments that were not clearly indicated by individual microburst index algorithms alone.
• The integration of multiple algorithms into the MWPI improved detection sensitivity in complex or marginal thermodynamic profiles.