[Paper Review] Climate change impacts on large-scale electricity system design decisions for the 21st Century

Smail Kozarcanin, Hailiang Liu+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 2, 2018

Integrated Energy Systems Optimization34 references21 citations

TL;DR

This study investigates how climate change impacts large-scale electricity system design in Europe using six high-resolution regional climate models under four IPCC CO2 pathways (RCP2.6–8.5). It finds that climate change has minimal effect on key system metrics—such as generation, demand, and storage needs—compared to interannual weather variability and design choices, implying that historical weather data remain robust for future system planning despite climate change.

ABSTRACT

Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it is highly relevant to investigate the extent of weather changes that directly impacts the best system design decisions for these weather-dependent technologies. Here, we use three IPCC representative CO2 concentrations pathways for the period 2006--2100 with six high-resolution climate experiments for the European domain. Climate elements are used to calculate bias adjusted 3-hourly time series of wind and solar generation, and temperature corrected demand time series for 30 European countries using state-of-the-art methodology. Weather-driven electricity system analysis methodology is then applied to compare four key metrics of highly renewable electricity systems. We find that climate change does not have a discernible impact on the key metrics of the combined electricity system dynamics, and conclude that the effect on important system design parameters can likely be ignored.

Motivation & Objective

• To assess how climate change affects the design and performance of highly renewable electricity systems in Europe.
• To evaluate the impact of changing weather patterns on wind and solar generation and electricity demand across 30 European countries.
• To determine whether climate change significantly alters key system metrics such as storage needs, transmission requirements, and renewable mix optimization.
• To compare the influence of climate change against interannual weather variability and design choices in system planning.
• To evaluate whether future electricity system designs should account for climate change impacts on variable renewable energy sources (VRES).

Proposed method

• Utilized six high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by global climate models under four RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for 2006–2100.
• Applied bias correction to 3-hourly wind and solar generation time series using historical weather data as reference.
• Corrected electricity demand time series using temperature-dependent demand models to reflect climate-driven changes in heating and cooling needs.
• Simulated electricity system performance across 30 European countries using a weather-driven electricity system analysis framework.
• Evaluated four key system metrics: annual generation, variability, storage needs, and transmission requirements under different climate scenarios.
• Compared results across RCMs and RCPs to assess model consistency and robustness of findings.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How do projected climate changes under different RCP scenarios affect wind and solar generation potential in Europe?
• RQ2 To what extent does climate change alter electricity demand patterns, particularly for heating and cooling, across European regions?
• RQ3 How do climate-driven changes in renewable generation and demand compare to interannual weather variability in influencing system design decisions?
• RQ4 What is the impact of climate change on key system metrics such as storage needs and transmission requirements in a highly renewable European electricity system?
• RQ5 Are the effects of climate change on VRES performance significant enough to necessitate climate-adjusted planning in future electricity system design?

Key findings

• Climate change has a minor impact on key system metrics of a highly renewable European electricity system, with changes in wind and solar generation performance being small compared to interannual weather variability.
• Average wind and solar generation slightly decrease, and their variability increases under higher-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), but these effects are outweighed by changes in electricity demand.
• Temperature increases reduce winter heating demand in Northern Europe, decreasing overall electricity demand, which counteracts reduced renewable output and can even reverse the need for additional dispatchable capacity.
• The effect of climate change on system design parameters is smaller than differences caused by design choices such as transmission expansion or wind-solar mix optimization.
• System design decisions based on historical weather data remain robust and largely unaffected by climate change impacts on VRES performance.
• Changes in electricity demand due to climate change—particularly shifts in heating and cooling needs—may indirectly influence optimal generator mix, especially under sector coupling scenarios.