[Paper Review] Pairwise Beats All-at-Once: Behavioral Gains from Sequential Choice Presentation

Dipankar Das|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jan 20, 2026

Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics0 citations

TL;DR

The paper proposes the Sequential Rationality Hypothesis, showing that sequential pairwise presentation of options improves utility-maximizing choices under bounded attention, contrasting with all-at-once displays.

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the Sequential Rationality Hypothesis, which argues that consumers are better able to make utility-maximizing decisions when products appear in sequential pairwise comparisons rather than in simultaneous multi-option displays. Although this involves higher cognitive costs than the all-at-once format, the current digital market, with its diverse products listed by review ratings, pricing, and paid products, often creates inconsistent choices. The present work shows that preparing the list sequentially supports more rational choice, as the consumer tries to minimize cognitive costs and may otherwise make an irrational decision. If the decision remains the same on both offers, then that is a consistent preference. The platform uses this approach by reducing cognitive costs while still providing the list in an all-at-once format rather than sequentially. To show how sequential exposure reduces cognitive overload and prevents context-dependent errors, we develop a bounded attention model and extend the monotonic attention rule of the random attention model to theorize the sequential rational hypothesis. Using a theoretical design with common consumer goods, we test these hypotheses. This theoretical model helps policymakers in digital market laws, behavioral economics, marketing, and digital platform design consider how choice architectures may improve consumer choices and encourage rational decision-making.

Motivation & Objective

• Motivate bounded rationality and attention constraints in digital choice environments.
• Introduce the Sequential Rationality Hypothesis as a mechanism to improve rational decisions via sequential pairwise presentations.
• Develop a RAM-based theoretical model for sequential binary comparisons under cognitive constraints.
• Derive axioms and theoretical results showing when sequential exposure dominates simultaneous presentation.
• Discuss policy and platform design implications for reducing cognitive load and improving decision quality.

Proposed method

• Builds on Random Attention Model (RAM) with monotonic attention and cognitive cost considerations.
• Defines CSEQ as a recursive binary comparison choice rule.
• Forms latent attention sets T with monotonicity: μ(T|S) ≤ μ(T|S\{a}) for a ∈ S\T.
• Offers a revised choice rule under monotone attention: π(x|S) = ∑T⊆S 1{x=max≻T} · μ(T|S).
• Introduces sequential choice process CSEQ and compares it to simultaneous RAM using a binary tree structure.
• Provides axioms (Binary Consistency, Sequential Transitivity, Attention Monotonicity, Cognitive Parsimony) for sequential rationality under bounded attention.

Figure 1 : Sequential Binary Comparisons under the SRH Model. Note: $\mu(\{A,C\})=0.4$ represents the probability of choosing $A$ over $C$ in a binary setting.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Does sequential pairwise exposure yield higher probability of choosing the true utility-maximizing option under bounded attention compared to all-at-once exposure?
• RQ2 How can RAM be extended to formally model sequential binary comparisons and bound cognitive costs in digital markets?
• RQ3 What axioms characterize sequential rationality under bounded attention, and how do they lead to testable predictions?
• RQ4 What are the policy and platform design implications for recommendation flows that reduce cognitive load and improve decision quality?

Key findings

• Sequential binary comparisons increase the likelihood of selecting the utility-maximizing option under bounded attention relative to simultaneous presentation.
• A recursive CSEQ model forms a binary decision tree that captures path dependence and reduces cognitive load.
• Monotone attention and cognitive cost definitions underpin the theoretical results and the weakened regularity under bounded attention.
• The model yields falsifiable predictions and welfare comparisons between sequential and simultaneous exposure formats.