[Paper Review] Phases of the net-zero energy transition and strategies to achieve it

Joche Markard, Daniel Rosenbloom|arXiv (Cornell University)|Nov 16, 2023

Environmental Impact and Sustainability8 citations

TL;DR

The paper identifies phases of the net-zero energy transition and outlines overarching strategies and policy challenges to guide research and policymaking.

ABSTRACT

The net-zero energy transition is an extraordinary societal challenge. It requires a swift, radical and economy wide transformation. With the aim of informing research and policy, we identify general phases of this transition and the overarching strategies that may be brought to bear in tackling this challenge. Drawing from the literature on sustainability transition studies, we depict the net-zero energy transition as a non-linear, cumulative process that involves multiple, interdependent transitions in different sectors. Future emission targets can only be reached if policymaking will play a strong role in guiding these transitions. To understand the increasing complexity of the policy challenge, we distinguish four overlapping phases of development: emergence of low-carbon innovations, transition of a single sector (electricity), transitions of multiple sectors based on low-carbon electricity, and transitions in difficult-to-decarbonize sectors. We argue that each phase comes with new policy challenges on top of the already existing ones. Finally, we discuss the merits and limitations of five general strategies for decarbonization: efficiency improvement, low-carbon electrification, low-carbon fuels, negative emissions and "untapped demand-side approaches." While electrification has emerged as the dominant strategy, new low-carbon fuels (e.g., based on hydrogen) but also more radical changes (e.g., substitution of carbon-intensive products or lifestyle changes) merit further attention.

Motivation & Objective

• Identify general phases of the net-zero energy transition drawn from sustainability transition studies.
• Highlight how transitions differ across sectors and the role of policy in guiding them.
• Discuss overarching strategies for decarbonization and their merits and limitations.

Proposed method

• Synthesis of literature from sustainability transition studies to model the net-zero energy transition as a non-linear, cumulative process.
• Distinction of four overlapping phases of development focusing on innovations and sectoral transitions.
• Analysis of policy challenges that arise in each phase.
• Evaluation of general decarbonization strategies and their relative emphasis.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 What are the general phases of the net-zero energy transition?
• RQ2 What policy challenges arise in each phase of the transition?
• RQ3 What are the merits and limitations of the main decarbonization strategies?
• RQ4 How do strategies such as electrification, low-carbon fuels, and demand-side changes interact across sectors?

Key findings

• The net-zero transition is a non-linear, cumulative process involving interdependent sectoral transitions.
• Four overlapping phases are identified: emergence of low-carbon innovations, single-sector transition (electricity), multi-sector transitions with low-carbon electricity, and transitions in difficult-to-decarbonize sectors.
• Each phase introduces new policy challenges beyond existing ones.
• Five general strategies for decarbonization are discussed: efficiency, low-carbon electrification, low-carbon fuels, negative emissions, and untapped demand-side approaches.
• Electrification is dominant, but low-carbon fuels and radical changes warrant further attention.