[Paper Review] Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis

Lutz Bornmann, Ruediger Mutz|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 19, 2014

scientometrics and bibliometrics research28 references18 citations

TL;DR

This bibliometric study analyzes the growth of science from the mid-1600s to 2012 using Web of Science data on publications and cited references. Applying segmented regression, it identifies three distinct growth phases—each with tripling growth rates—reaching 8–9% annual growth in cited references by 2012, indicating accelerating knowledge accumulation across disciplines, especially in natural and medical sciences.

ABSTRACT

Many studies in information science have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we re-examine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (i) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (ii) analyse it across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences and for the medical and health sciences. Furthermore, the data are analysed with an advanced statistical technique - segmented regression analysis - which can identify specific segments with similar growth rates in the history of science. The study is based on two different sets of bibliometric data: (1) The number of publications held as source items in the Web of Science (WoS, Thomson Reuters) per publication year and (2) the number of cited references in the publications of the source items per cited reference year. We have looked at the rate at which science has grown since the mid-1600s. In our analysis of cited references we identified three growth phases in the development of science, which each led to growth rates tripling in comparison with the previous phase: from less than 1% up to the middle of the 18th century, to 2 to 3% up to the period between the two world wars and 8 to 9% to 2012.

Motivation & Objective

• To re-express the growth of science using updated data up to 2012.
• To analyze growth trends across all scientific disciplines, with separate focus on natural sciences and medical/health sciences.
• To identify distinct growth phases in science using advanced statistical techniques.
• To quantify changes in growth rates over time using cited references as a proxy for scientific output.
• To assess whether growth has accelerated, plateaued, or changed pattern across historical periods.

Proposed method

• Utilizes two bibliometric datasets: publications in Web of Science (WoS) and cited references per year.
• Applies segmented regression analysis to detect periods with stable growth rates.
• Analyzes growth trends from the mid-1600s to 2012, focusing on cited references as a measure of scientific output.
• Segments the time series into phases where growth rates are approximately constant.
• Compares growth rates across disciplines, particularly natural sciences and medical/health sciences.
• Uses cited reference counts as a proxy for the cumulative growth of scientific knowledge.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 What are the long-term growth rates of science from the mid-1600s to 2012?
• RQ2 How do growth rates differ between natural sciences and medical/health sciences?
• RQ3 Are there identifiable phases in the growth of science with distinct and stable growth rates?
• RQ4 What is the magnitude of acceleration in scientific output over time, as measured by cited references?
• RQ5 Can segmented regression effectively detect structural changes in the growth trajectory of science?

Key findings

• Three distinct growth phases in science were identified based on cited reference data.
• The first phase, before the mid-18th century, had growth rates below 1% per year.
• The second phase, from the mid-18th century to the interwar period, saw growth rates of 2–3% per year.
• The third phase, from the interwar period to 2012, exhibited growth rates of 8–9% per year.
• Each phase represented a tripling of the previous growth rate, indicating accelerating knowledge production.
• The acceleration was most pronounced in the medical and health sciences, though trends were consistent across disciplines.