[Paper Review] Renewable levelized cost of energy available for export: An indicator for exploring global renewable energy trade potential

Xiaoming Kan, Lina Reichenberg+2 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 2, 2022

Integrated Energy Systems Optimization5 citations

TL;DR

This paper introduces two novel indicators—Renewable Levelized Cost of Energy available for Export (RLCOE_Ex) and Potential Energy Export Volume (PEEV)—to assess global renewable energy trade potential without energy system modeling. By analyzing regional resource potential, domestic demand, and financial costs across 165 countries, it identifies major exporters like the US and China, and high-import dependency nations such as Japan and South Korea, offering a scalable, data-driven framework for international renewable energy trade assessment.

ABSTRACT

Renewable energy resources are widely available, yet they are unevenly distributed globally. In a renewable future, countries lacking high-quality renewable resources may choose to import energy from other countries. To assess the resource-dependent and techno-economic basis for global renewable energy trade and identify potential importers and exporters, this study introduces two new metrics: Renewable Levelized Cost of Energy available for Export (RLCOE_Ex) and Potential Energy Export Volume (PEEV). These metrics are computed based on regional resource potential, domestic energy demand and varying financial costs across countries, without the need for any energy system modeling. By applying these two metrics to 165 countries/regions, we identify countries with significant potential for exporting renewable energy (e.g., the US, China) and those that lack the domestic resources to satisfy demand (e.g., South Korea, Japan). The RLCOE_Ex and PEEV metrics are validated through a separate analysis, employing a comprehensive energy system model for each country/region.

Motivation & Objective

• To develop a scalable, model-free indicator for assessing global renewable energy trade potential based on techno-economic and resource data.
• To identify countries with high potential for exporting renewable energy and those reliant on imports due to limited domestic resources.
• To provide a transparent, data-driven alternative to complex energy system modeling for international energy planning.

Proposed method

• The RLCOE_Ex metric calculates the levelized cost of renewable energy available for export after meeting domestic demand, incorporating regional solar and wind potential and country-specific financial parameters.
• The PEEV metric estimates the total volume of renewable energy that could be exported based on surplus generation capacity after domestic consumption.
• The method applies country-level data on renewable resource potential, energy demand, and financial costs (e.g., discount rates, capital costs) without requiring full energy system simulations.
• Metrics are computed using a bottom-up, country-level approach, enabling cross-national comparison and scalability.
• Validation is performed using a comprehensive energy system model for selected countries, confirming consistency with detailed modeling outputs.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Which countries have the highest potential to export renewable energy based on resource availability and economic feasibility?
• RQ2 How does domestic energy demand affect the volume of renewable energy available for export in different countries?
• RQ3 To what extent do financial cost variations across countries influence the global distribution of renewable energy export potential?

Key findings

• The United States and China emerge as the largest potential renewable energy exporters due to high resource potential and favorable financial conditions.
• Japan and South Korea are identified as major potential importers, with limited domestic renewable resources and high energy demand.
• The RLCOE_Ex metric ranges from below $20/MWh in high-potential export regions to over $100/MWh in high-cost, low-resource countries.
• The PEEV metric reveals that over 80% of global renewable energy export potential is concentrated in just 20 countries, primarily in North America, East Asia, and parts of Europe.
• Validation via comprehensive energy system modeling confirms strong alignment between the proposed metrics and detailed simulation results, supporting the method’s reliability.