[Paper Review] Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: Preliminary report on the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, 24th August 2016

Antonella Peresan, V. G. Kossobokov+4 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Aug 26, 2016

earthquake and tectonic studies4 references3 citations

TL;DR

This paper presents a time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) framework that integrates earthquake prediction algorithms (CN and M8S) with full waveform modeling to generate realistic, time-specific ground motion scenarios. Applied to the 2016 M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, the method successfully predicted the event's occurrence window and generated accurate ground motion time series at bedrock, validating its utility for real-time hazard assessment and mitigation planning.

ABSTRACT

A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed by means of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, is defined both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The prospective application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous validation of the proposed methodology. The results from real-time testing of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are illustrated with specific reference to the August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake.

Motivation & Objective

• To develop a time-dependent seismic hazard assessment framework that integrates earthquake prediction with realistic ground motion simulation.
• To improve seismic risk mitigation by providing prioritized, scenario-based ground motion inputs for engineering and emergency planning.
• To validate the neo-deterministic approach using the actual M6.2 Central Italy earthquake of August 24, 2016.
• To demonstrate the operational feasibility of updating hazard scenarios in real time using pattern recognition and waveform modeling.

Proposed method

• The method employs the CN and M8S algorithms for space-time prediction of strong earthquakes within alerted regions.
• It uses full waveform modeling to simulate ground motion at bedrock without relying on empirical attenuation relations.
• Time-dependent scenarios are generated based on predicted strong motion occurrence windows, ensuring relevance to the imminent hazard period.
• The approach combines deterministic seismic source modeling with realistic synthetic ground motion time series for engineering applications.
• The procedure is routinely updated since 2006, enabling continuous refinement of hazard scenarios.
• The model generates complete ground motion time series, including displacement, suitable for structural analysis.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Can time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios accurately predict the occurrence window of a major earthquake?
• RQ2 How well do the simulated ground motion time series match actual observations for the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake?
• RQ3 To what extent can the integration of CN and M8S prediction algorithms improve the reliability of seismic hazard scenarios?
• RQ4 Can the method support timely mitigation actions by providing prioritized, scenario-based hazard inputs?
• RQ5 What is the validity of the time-dependent NDSHA framework when tested on a real, observed seismic event?

Key findings

• The CN and M8S algorithms successfully predicted a high-probability time window for the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake prior to its occurrence.
• The time-dependent NDSHA framework generated realistic ground motion time series at bedrock that matched observed shaking characteristics.
• The simulated ground displacement and acceleration time histories were consistent with engineering demands for structural assessment.
• The method demonstrated operational feasibility by producing validated scenarios through routine updates since 2006.
• The real-time testing on the 2016 Central Italy event confirmed the model’s ability to support timely hazard mitigation decisions.
• The absence of empirical attenuation relations improved the physical realism of the simulated ground motion.